Donald Trump warned Hamas that unless the hostages were returned by Inauguration Day, 鈥淎ll hell will break loose.鈥�

After 15 months laughing at Joe Biden鈥檚 bumbling foreign policy, where Israel had an unqualified right to defend itself so long as it didn鈥檛 kill any Gazans, where promised munitions to the 91传媒 state were delayed and humanitarian aid stolen by Hamas was blamed on Israel, the leaders of Hamas鈥攚hoever was still left standing鈥攎ust have been startled that America had elected someone with the true grit to issue a true threat.

Clearly without Trump鈥檚 return to the Oval Office, no Israeli and American hostages would be released this past weekend鈥攐r possibly ever. Israel didn鈥檛 need 15 months to end this war. It could have been over soon after it began鈥攁nd with more hostages still alive. All that Israel required was to have its American ally bolt the door on the gathering mob of hectoring antisemites and get out of the way.

We are, however, where we are. But make no mistake: this negotiated ceasefire that will unfold in stages will not end well unless Trump, and his entirely revamped American foreign policy team, ensures that all remaining hostages are released, the remains of dead hostages are returned, and all members of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Palestinian 鈥渃ivilians鈥� who participated in the October 7 massacre pay the ultimate price for their crimes.

Because the resolution to the conflict, as it now stands, positively stinks. In the Middle East version of 鈥淟et鈥檚 Make a Deal,鈥� I would have preferred skipping over this gambit and going to straight to Door Number 2: the 鈥淎ll hell will break loose鈥� option. I am curious to know what hell would look like for the millions of Palestinians still cheering for Hamas and celebrating the bloodbath that will forever be remembered as October 7.

Almost instantly after these ceasefire negotiations were announced, Gazans took to the streets to bizarrely exult in some psychotic victory. If Gazans are celebrating the death of 44,000 of their own people and the ruination of the entire Strip, then this war is far from over.

Cheering in the streets is a telltale sign that Gazans have not quite had enough, and that Hamas鈥� promise of several more reenactments of October 7 is something they are all actually counting on.

The world needs to understand what Israelis have long known: Palestinians are notably unlike the Confederate states at Appomattox, the British at Yorktown and Napoleon at Waterloo. They don鈥檛 seem to know when they have been defeated. Even complete decimation, in their minds, is construed as a win. Reality never sinks in. Such is the depth of their Jew-hating delusions.

The world needs to understand what Israelis have long known: Palestinians are notably unlike the Confederate states at Appomattox, the British at Yorktown and Napoleon at Waterloo. They don鈥檛 seem to know when they have been defeated.

This realization cannot be underestimated. All of Trump鈥檚 primary Cabinet secretaries testified this past week that there can be no Hamas in a reconstituted Gaza. But pursuant to the deal, Israel is scheduled to release 730 Palestinian prisoners, many of whom had either murdered Israelis or built weapons that were used for that purpose.

Once returned to Gaza, the West Bank or elsewhere, expect none of them to have found religion鈥攐ther than the one where they are already devout believers, the very same one that obliges dead Jews as an article of faith. No matter what this negotiated ceasefire expressly states, these newly freed Palestinians will most certainly return to the only actual 鈥渙ccupation鈥� that applies to them: terrorism.

And what does Israel receive in return? Three hostages at the outset, followed by 30 of the 90 believed to still be alive. 聽Remember, the hostages were innocent civilians鈥攅lderly and children鈥攚ho had been kidnapped and held for ransom and as bargaining chips for extortion. If the unbalanced moral ratio to this exchange sounds absurd, well, . . . it is.

Israelis know this to be dangerously true. But a sizable majority are prepared to accept even a bad deal if it means the eventual return of hostages. Will they all make it back? Are 90 still alive?

All throughout these negotiations, Hamas sought better terms on Palestinian prisoners because it knew what many terrorist aficionados had already suspected: the cards Hamas was holding consisted of far too many dead hostages. That鈥檚 not a good look when you are trying to focus the world鈥檚 attention on dead Gazans killed by genocidal Israelis.

This legerdemain worked because it was only Israel that was expected to uphold humanitarian standards. The barbarism of Hamas was given a Palestinian pass.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has largely supported this defective deal. He had little choice. He had to trust Trump and not undermine the new president鈥檚 Day 1 demand. But didn鈥檛 Trump mean all the hostages? Why are we still negotiating with terrorists? Why are we not unloading the Trumpian hellscape on Gaza?

In order to finalize this done deal, Netanyahu had to convince his War Cabinet and governing coalition of its merits. He knew that ultranationalists like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir would refuse to release any prisoners and thus add to the population of terrorists. Everyone knows that, as it has always done in the past, Hamas will renege on its commitments. By then, Israel鈥檚 wartime pause would have normalized. A decision will then have to be made whether to reset the clock and resume the war or accept the status quo.

Once soldiers return home, a nation naturally loses its will to send them back into battle. Hopefully Israel will at least retain a military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor where Gaza and Egypt share a border. That鈥檚 where Hamas doubtlessly smuggled in its arsenal that set this war in motion and allowed it to continue.

Bibi is in a bind. Israel needs to see the return of some hostages: especially the elderly and children. But he also wants to retain his new title as Winston Churchill reincarnate鈥攁 far more heroic legacy than being remembered for the national security debacle that was October 7. He was on the precipice of vanquishing Hamas and Islamic Jihad, once and for all.

Obviously, Bibi is betting that Trump will not interfere if after the 42-day ceasefire all hostages are not returned, too many are no longer alive, rockets are still being fired and Hamas appears to be reconstituting with new recruits and old aspirations.

That鈥檚 not something Israel can accept, and the world needs to be prepared that this ceasefire could reignite.

Thane Rosenbaum is a novelist, essayist, law professor and Distinguished University Professor at Touro University, where he directs the Forum on Life, Culture & Society. He is the legal analyst for CBS 91传媒 Radio. His most recent book is titled 鈥淪aving Free Speech 鈥� From Itself,鈥� and his forthcoming book is titled, 鈥淏eyond Proportionality: Is Israel Fighting a Just War in Gaza?鈥�